$TRUMP Dinner: Main Street Loses, Insiders Win

TL;DR

1. $TRUMP memecoin holders compete for exclusive White House access

2. The wealthiest 19 U.S. households added $1 trillion to their net worth last year

3. Trump’s first 100 days: a review

4. Tesla pops despite plunging profits

Top Trump Meme Coin Holders Get Private Dinner, White House Tour

President Trump is inviting the top 220 holders of his $TRUMP memecoin to join him for a private dinner, followed by a tour of the White House. The announcement sent the token’s price up more than 60%. 

Trump, through his affiliated entities, retains ownership in about 80% of the total supply of Trump tokens and collects fees on each trade. The coin has already generated hundreds of millions’ worth of profits for entities affiliated with the president. Just last week, they earned $1.3 million in fees.

• Remember: In 2016, Trump said, “The president can’t have a conflict of interest.”

But this isn’t just enriching the president and his family. It’s creating opportunities for outside interests to buy influence. As Bloomberg’s Matt Levine put it, it’s the “democratization of bribery.”

The memecoin website outlines that winners will be determined by the average holdings of $TRUMP owners from April 23 to May 12. “The more $TRUMP you hold — and the longer you hold it — the higher Your Ranking will be,” it reads.

While retail investors are incentivized to hold and accumulate, insiders are free to cash out. The lockup period for early holders conveniently expired this month, giving them a chance to sell into the rally sparked by the dinner announcement.

But wait; there’s more! The website’s fine print notes that Trump may not attend the dinner, and if he doesn’t, the event might be rescheduled — or replaced entirely with a “limited edition Trump NFT.” In other words, someone could spend $8 million for dinner with the president and walk away with a JPEG.

Trump once promised to put “Main Street” first, but ventures like this appear designed to exploit retail investors who lack the resources — lawyers, financial advisors — to navigate the details.

• Case in point: 31 early traders of $TRUMP coin netted $669 million in profits within the first month. Meanwhile, roughly 800,000 other investors absorbed a collective loss of over $2 billion.

Trump got elected on a promise of putting “America first.” Ostensibly that meant lower prices for American consumers and a better deal for the U.S. relative to its trading partners. It’s now undeniable that it was never “America first” for Trump. It was always, and will always be, “me first.”

You’re Not Imagining It, Wealth Inequality Is Getting a Lot Worse

In 2024 alone, the 19 wealthiest U.S. households added $1 trillion to their net worth — the largest single-year gain on record. That boost is bigger than Switzerland’s entire economy and reflects a decades-long trend toward increasing inequality. 

• The top 19 households own 1.8% of U.S. household wealth, up from 0.1% in 1982. Meanwhile, the bottom 50% of Americans own just 3% of the pie.

This isn’t just a problem for lower-income households. Because wealthy people save a higher percentage of their income, rising inequality has slowed growth in aggregate consumer demand by 2 to 4 percentage points of GDP annually, according to the Economic Policy Institute.

The ripple effects extend to educational attainment and economic mobility. An increase of 6 Gini points (a standard measure of income inequality) reduces the likelihood of college attendance for children of less-educated parents by 4 percentage points. 

• Again, this is a nation-level problem, as a country’s economic growth depends on the skills of its population. From 1960 to 2000, roughly 75% of the differences in GDP per capita growth across countries could be explained by performance on international math and science assessments. 

One root cause is the disconnect between rising productivity and wages. Between 1979 and 2024, productivity has grown 2.7x as much as pay. 

All of this is affecting how young Americans view America. 42% of people under 30 say they’re “barely getting by” financially, and just 15% think the country is heading in the right direction.

The majority of what ails America can either be reverse engineered or partially correlated to massive income inequality. 

The .1% don’t have as much of a vested interest in public infrastructure and the well-being and prosperity of America. Do they have a vested interest in our education system? No, they’re not sending their kids to public schools. Do they have a vested interest in our health care system? No. Do they even have a vested interest in our national security? No; at the end of the day, they can peace out to New Zealand or Dubai or London. We’ve essentially created a superclass of people who wield enormous economic power yet are disconnected from the broader experiences and interests of most Americans. They’re literally behind gilded gates. And at some point, people show up with pitchforks and lanterns.

When Scott talks about wealth distribution and the top 0.1%, he sounds a lot like Bernie Sanders — though Bernie used to get mocked for it. I’m reminded of the Occupy Wall Street days, when these issues sparked protests and public outrage. Politicians like Bernie talked openly about inequality but were largely written off as crazy communists.  

But earlier this month, Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez held a rally in California that drew 36,000 people. For comparison, the average Trump rally draws about 5,000 people. And these are candidates who are known for fighting income inequality. 

Critics might say we’re beating a dead horse, but we keep returning to this topic because it will be the defining issue of our time.

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Trump’s First 100 Days: Executive Orders, Legal Challenges, and Market Volatility

Trump’s first 100 days back in office have seen an unprecedented number of executive orders, legal pushback, and confusing policy walkbacks. Meanwhile, expectations that a second Trump term would result in a booming economy have so far proved elusive, with key economic indicators pointing toward recession.

The administration has insisted that tariffs will restore national security and prosperity, but Trump can’t seem to decide how big they should be, or to which goods they should apply. 

April 5: Trump imposed sweeping tariffs across virtually all of America’s trading partners, including broad new levies on a wide range of imports from China, Mexico, and Canada.

April 9: Trump announced a pause on the non-China tariffs. 

April 10: He doubled down, escalating the U.S.-China trade war by imposing an additional 50% tariff on Chinese imports, raising the total tariff rate to 145%.

April 23: He reversed course again, floating a possible reduction in the China tariff rate to 50–65%. The S&P 500 jumped 2% on the news. 

April 25: Trump said Xi Jinping, China’s president, called him to strike a trade deal. Chinese officials denied that any such talks are happening.

Volatility hasn’t been limited to trade. After calling Fed Chair Jerome Powell a “major loser” on April 21 — triggering a 3% market sell-off — Trump reversed course on April 22, saying he had “no intention” of firing him. 

Meanwhile, DOGE, another flagship initiative, has fallen short of its initial projections. Elon Musk, tasked with leading DOGE, originally promised he would save American taxpayers $2 trillion, then revised his estimate down to $1 trillion, then again to $150 billion — 93% less than his initial goal.

• House Republicans are looking to increase the defense budget this year by $150 billion, making DOGE’s “efficiency revolution” a budget-neutral reshuffle at best. 

• While Musk has spent months criticizing federal workers for being unproductive, he has been tweeting, on average, 94 times per day. That means he’s spending over three hours per day on X.

Bottom line: The first 100 days have delivered plenty of action, few legislative accomplishments, and a market reacting more to rhetoric reversals than structured reform.

The hashtag “TrumpChickenedOut” went viral in China, and however the administration wants to frame it, that’s the message that China received. Ken Griffin, the founder and CEO of Citadel who donated millions to the Trump campaign, nailed it when he said, “The U.S. is more than a nation; it’s a brand … and we are eroding that brand right now.”

Tesla Stock Jumps, Despite Weak Earnings

Tesla stock rose 5% after reporting earnings that missed expectations across the board. Part of the bounce came from a broader tech rally, but investors were also reacting to Elon Musk’s announcement that he’ll scale back his time at DOGE and refocus on Tesla starting in May. Markets seem relieved that the CEO of a struggling $900 billion automaker might start showing up to work again.

Tesla had a rough start to the year. Total revenue fell 9% year over year, net income plunged 71%, and the company’s operating margin dropped to just 2%, down from 11% a year ago and almost 20% in 2022. Tesla only stayed in the black thanks to selling regulatory credits — without them, it would have reported a net loss.

Since the beginning of the year, Tesla has lost more than a third of its value and continued to cede market share to competitors. In the first quarter, Volkswagen overtook Tesla as the top EV seller in Europe.

But no company underscores Tesla’s decline like its fastest-growing competitor, BYD. The firm also reported earnings last week, and it made Tesla’s look even worse. BYD’s revenue increased 36%, and its quarterly profits doubled to $1.3 billion, 3x Tesla’s profits. Year to date, BYD shares have increased over 50%, while Tesla is down 25%. 

Tesla’s fall isn’t so much a referendum on EVs as it is a case study in what happens when the competition stays focused and the market leader drifts.

The bull case for Tesla depends on the robotaxi and the Optimus robot. Musk told investors that the robotaxi pilot is on track to launch in Austin this June. That could help explain the market’s reaction: This is what investors have been waiting for. 

But what does “pilot launch” mean? Is it just a staged PR event, like the Cybercab stunt in LA last fall, or something real, where you can open an app and hail a ride, like you can with Waymo in San Francisco?

One detail that made me bearish: When asked what the rollout would look like, Musk said that they might start with “10 or 20 vehicles.” That’s low, and given his track record of overpromising and underdelivering, it could be even less. For context, Waymo already has 700 vehicles operating.

So again, the question is: Is this thing real? I mean, why buy this company if you don’t know what you’re actually buying? People say it’s a robotaxi company. It’s an AI company. It’s a humanoid robot company. Well, OK, show me the robot. Show me one robotaxi ride. 

As of today, April 2025, it’s a car company whose sales are down 20%.

Donald Trump is about to get Liberal Party leader Mark Carney reelected prime minister of Canada. Four months ago, the conservative candidate was a shoo-in. Now, thanks to the trade war Trump started, Carney has surged. He’s been forceful but dignified, and told Trump that we look forward to reestablishing relations, but the current situation doesn’t work for Canada, and, until that changes, we’re going to stand our ground.

Scott sits down with Melinda French Gates to talk about her new book, The Next Day: Transitions, Change, and Moving Forward. They also explore her philanthropic priorities, lessons from parenting, and why women still struggle to access real power. Listen here.

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