Melania Coin Made 24 Wallets Rich — Then Crashed 95%

TL;DR

1. Traders made $100M by buying Melania Trump’s memecoin before launch

2. The U.S. and U.K. agree on first trade deal since Liberation Day

3. Apple’s shift toward AI search rattles Google

4. Uber’s robotaxis are beating its human drivers in Austin

Millions in Minutes: Traders Bought Melania Memecoin Before Public Launch

Two dozen anonymous traders made nearly $100 million trading $MELANIA, a memecoin linked to Melania Trump, in the minutes before it was made public.  

One wallet bought $681,000 worth of Melania coin 64 seconds before the project was announced. Within 24 hours, the account had made $39 million, and netted another $4.4 million over the next three days. 

• Since launch, $MELANIA has lost 95% of its value.

The trade fits a larger pattern. Trump-affiliated crypto projects have generated at least $300 million in trading fees since January, helping boost the Trump family’s net worth by $2.9 billion.

Because memecoins aren’t regulated as securities, these types of trades don’t fall under insider trading laws. But the optics are clear: A small group of traders made outsize profits while smaller investors were left holding the bag.

The reason we have insider trading laws is that if just a small group of insiders make money at the expense of everyone else, then everyone else stops investing in our markets. They stop buying stock. They stop investing in bonds. And corporate America no longer has access to cheap capital. This means our student loans, our mortgages, our auto loans are going to get more expensive. But a small number of people are going to get really f*cking rich. 

Sen. Elizabeth Warren nailed it: They’re lining their pockets, while tanking the economy for the rest of us. Alexei Navalny took a similar approach in Russia, exposing how Putin’s inner circle got rich while Moscow was filled with potholes. Both understood the real challenge: not just uncovering corruption but also connecting the dots — showing people how grift actually affects their lives.

Most Americans don’t track crypto wallets or foreign shell companies. But they understand: Your mortgage is getting more expensive so someone else can party in St. Barth. That’s how you cut through, make people care. It’s storytelling, and it’s our best shot at fighting the grift.

Trump’s First Post–Liberation Day Trade Deal

Trump unveiled his first trade deal since Liberation Day — a U.S.-U.K. agreement pitched as a win for both sides. But scratch the surface, and it looks more like a forced headline. The deal targets autos, steel, and some industrial goods, but leaves the base 10% tariff in place.

Notably, the U.K. is the only top 10 trading partner with which the U.S. runs a goods surplus. In 2024, the U.S. exported $79.9 billion worth of goods to the U.K. and imported $68.1 billion. This raises a question: If the U.K. isn’t the problem, why is it the priority?

U.K.’s Wins:

• Autos: U.S. tariffs on U.K. car exports fell from 27.5% to 10% for 100,000 vehicles annually. (Britain sent 92,000 vehicles to the United States in 2024.)

• Steel: The 25% tariff on U.K. steel and aluminum products that came into effect in March was removed. 

• Aviation: Rolls-Royce jet engines gain duty-free access. (Boeing imports Rolls-Royce engines for its planes.)

America’s Wins:

• The U.K. will increase the quota on beef imports from the U.S. and eliminate tariffs on ethanol. 

• Britain is expected to announce a purchase of $10 billion worth of U.S. assembled Boeing aircraft parts.

However, U.S. beef likely won’t be flying off British shelves. The U.K. government won’t relax its food standards — meaning hormone-treated beef remains banned, disqualifying 80% of U.S. beef.

The U.K.’s 2% digital services tax on U.S. tech companies remains in place.

This agreement does not change trade in services or investments between the two nations, both of which are larger than the exchange of physical goods. In 2023, U.S. firms invested over $1 trillion in the U.K. — more than any other country — while British firms invested $630 billion in the U.S., behind only the Netherlands, Japan, and Canada.

But announcing a deal and executing on it are two separate challenges. Less than a third of surveyed adults in the U.K. and less than half in the U.S. believe that Trump will actually abide by a trade deal.

As far as I can tell, the net net of all this is basically zero. The Trump administration is dropping tariffs after raising and never enacting them; they’re just looking for an excuse to declare victory and create a huge distraction. 

We have a mob family running the government right now. That’s bad. What’s worse, is that Michael Corleone is running the grift, while Fredo is running the government.

What do I mean by that? I wish they brought the same expertise, elegance, and timing to government and tariffs as they’re bringing to their grift. Every time we talk about their grift, I’m sort of impressed with how elegant and strategic it is. And then I look at this sh*t, and it’s a whole lot of nothing.

Alphabet Drops After Apple Hints at Ditching Google for AI Search

Alphabet shares fell 9% after Apple SVP Eddy Cue testified that Apple may begin integrating AI search engines like Perplexity into Safari. 

• Currently, Google pays Apple about $20 billion per year to be Safari’s default search engine.

Speaking during the Department of Justice’s antitrust case against Google, Cue revealed that Safari saw its first-ever decline in search volume last month — a shift he attributed to users turning to AI-powered search tools.

More than half of Google’s search business flows through Apple devices, so any erosion in that pipeline is material.

• Google’s search business generated $50 billion in the first quarter alone — more than the market caps of Porsche, Kroger, or Robinhood. 

Google’s share of the global search market dropped to 89% last year — the first time it’s been below 90% since 2015. Its competition isn’t limited to stand-alone AIs like ChatGPT. Microsoft has embedded ChatGPT and DALL-E into Bing, helping it grow to a 12% market share in desktop search. 

• According to Microsoft, stealing 1% of search from Google can mean an additional $2 billion of new search revenue.

Search growth isn’t the only challenge top of mind for Alphabet. Last year, the DOJ suggested that the firm should be forced to divest Chrome, its main search browser, to curb its monopoly power. 

Everyone’s scared of a breakup, but history says breakups can be accretive. Standard Oil got split up, and the parts were worth more than the whole. Same with AT&T. If the DOJ forces Google to spin off Chrome, that’s not necessarily bad news — it’s just a new structure. Sometimes monopolies just mask inefficiencies. I don’t need Alphabet to diversify for me. I’d rather pick the parts I want — maybe a pure-play YouTube, or a discounted Google if people think it’s declining. So if the stock sells off on breakup fears? That’s a buying opportunity. I might dribble into Alphabet and see what happens.

First, it’s worth asking: Why exactly is Wall Street selling? Is it because they think Google’s going to be broken up? Is it because the company needs this Apple partnership to dominate in search? Or because they learned Safari search volume is going down? My guess is it’s all of the above — and all that uncertainty is turbocharging pessimism around Google.

But I think it’s important to zoom out and look at the valuation through a sum-of-the-parts lens. If you break out Cloud and YouTube and apply reasonable comp multiples, you’re already approaching a trillion dollars in market cap before even accounting for Search. Under those assumptions, the core search business — which is still growing — is being valued at just 4x sales. The market’s acting like Google is some dying industrial player instead of a dominant tech company with real AI upside.

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Uber’s Turnaround: From Cash Burner to Profit Machine

Uber, once the poster child for cash burn, is now racking up quarters of steady growth and profitability.

First quarter earnings largely beat expectations, with mobility and delivery revenues up 13% and 15%, respectively. Operating margins hit 11%, up from 2% just a year ago, and free cash flow surged 66%.

Autonomous vehicles took center stage on the earnings call. Since off-loading its in-house AV unit in 2020, Uber has pivoted to an asset-light strategy — betting on partnerships and outside investments. It now has more than 15 active AV collaborations spanning ride-hailing, delivery, and freight, including with Waymo, WeRide, and Volkswagen. These partnerships have scaled: Uber recently hit an annualized run rate of 1.5 million AV trips. In Austin, Texas, its Waymo-powered robotaxis complete more rides per day than 99% of human Uber drivers.

CEO Dara Khosrowshahi reported no signs of weakening consumer sentiment and forecast 16–20% gross bookings growth next quarter — well above Wall Street’s 14% estimate. The stock is up over 30% YTD.

I think autonomous driving is where the next wave of growth could come from for Uber. The only question is Uber’s role in it. They scrapped their in-house AV unit and instead partnered with Waymo. Waymo builds the cars, Uber provides the network, and Waymo pays Uber to access it. It’s a great setup for Uber — no up-front capital, just leveraging their existing tech. And it works for Waymo, which can focus on the hard stuff: building safe, functional vehicles.

But long term, what happens if Waymo perfects the tech and decides it no longer needs Uber’s network? We’re not there yet, but if that day comes, Uber loses its leverage. That’s the risk. If autonomous is the future of mobility — and I think it is — Uber might need to reconsider owning more of the stack.

I think you’re underestimating the power of the custody of the consumer and how lazy people are when they get comfortable with an interface. I have uploaded all my credit cards to Uber. I understand it, and it’s just super easy for me to hit it and go. Essentially, Uber’s become the iOS for transportation.

I think it’s gonna be in a position to drive so much customer value that it’ll be able to negotiate contracts the way that Apple does for search. I think Uber and Waymo will be big winners here.

For the first time, more people see China as a global force for good than the U.S. That perception shift will boost Alibaba’s business, as international companies grow more open to Chinese providers. We’ll see this reflected in Alibaba's earnings beat this week.

The U.S. used to attract the world’s best minds. Now it’s exporting them. Scott breaks down the implications in this week’s No Mercy / No Malice.

1. China's AI models will close the gap — but America's real advantage lies elsewhere

2. The New York Times documented 25 years of eating in NYC, from pop culture influences to food fads

3. What AI chatbots, Newark, and the West Village girls have in common

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