GOP Tax Plan = $24 Trillion Youth Debt Bill

TL;DR

1. Wall Street just lost faith in health care’s biggest player

2. HBO Max is back — Warner Bros. Discovery rebrands for a fifth time

3. Airbnb’s next act is all about services and experiences

4. GOP tax plan: $5 trillion tax cut, $24 trillion bill for future generations

Earnings Miss, CEO Exit, Criminal Probe: UnitedHealth Implodes

UnitedHealth Group can’t catch a break. The stock plunged 18% last Thursday after reports that the Department of Justice launched a criminal investigation into potential Medicare fraud. That follows a civil investigation in February, which examined whether the insurer exaggerated patient diagnoses to secure higher payouts.

Last Tuesday, the stock dropped more than 17% after CEO Andrew Witty abruptly resigned, and the company withdrew its earnings forecast. UnitedHealth is now bringing back former CEO Stephen Hemsley to stabilize operations.

• Of the 19 S&P 500 firms that reinstated prior CEOs since 2010, 14 delivered worse shareholder returns during their second stint.

The stock has been cut in half this year, making it the single worst performer in the S&P 500. 

This leadership shake-up follows a series of margin hits tied to rising costs in UnitedHealth’s Medicare Advantage program; seniors who deferred care during COVID are now flooding the system. While CVS and Humana scaled back higher-risk Medicare enrollment, UnitedHealth doubled down. That bet is now backfiring.

UnitedHealth, America’s largest health care company, is a bellwether for the industry. Last week, its drop pulled down CVS, Elevance, Humana, and others. The key question: Is this a company-specific problem, or something broader?

The sell-off suggests the market sees an industrywide issue. That likely ties back to political pressure: We’re seeing calls to lower drug prices, boost price transparency, and give Medicare more negotiating power. All of that would benefit consumers but hurt the health care industry.

But I believe, if history is any guide, health care investors have nothing to worry about because lobbying ultimately wins. Who is the greatest lobbyist in America? It’s the health care industry.

I hate to say it, but this might be a buying opportunity. The U.S. pays 2x more per person for worse outcomes than peer nations, largely because health care companies have shaped laws to pad profits. Americans invent many brand-name drugs but pay 4x more than the countries that import them.

This isn’t just price gouging, it’s a systemic tax on future prosperity. Health care now crowds out investment in the next generation, drives deficits, and leaves 40% of households in medical debt. 

We need socialized medicine. It’s the only scalable solution. But until Citizens United is overturned, the money machine rolls on. UnitedHealth’s problems might be temporary, but the real sickness is structural.

Warner Bros. Admits Defeat, Reverts to HBO Max After Branding Backfire

Warner Bros. Discovery is backtracking. Less than two years after killing off the “HBO” in HBO Max to launch a broader service called Max, the company is reversing course, announcing Wednesday that it will rebrand the service back to HBO Max.

The move is an admission that the Max name, born out of the WarnerMedia–Discovery merger, failed to resonate. Originally pitched as a blend of HBO’s prestige and Discovery’s breadth, Max instead confused consumers and blurred the identity of the streaming service. 

Now, after reporting a triple-digit jump in adjusted streaming profits and 122 million global subscribers, Warner Bros. Discovery is trying to anchor its future to what built its legacy: HBO’s premium reputation. 

This rebrand isn’t just about optics. It’s a strategic reset: doubling down on quality instead of chasing mass-market quantity. Breadth didn’t build the brand. Prestige did.

I called this in 2023: Dropping “HBO” was the dumbest rebrand in media history. Reverting to HBO Max is the right move, but it never should’ve come to this.

HBO isn’t just a brand, it’s the artisanal streamer: Succession, The Sopranos, The Last of Us, Game of Thrones. Cultural landmarks. And they pull it off on a $2.5 billion budget vs. Netflix’s $18 billion. Netflix is like eating McDonald’s at Newark Airport: You enjoy it but walk away thinking “Did I really need to do that?” HBO captures lightning in a bottle. 

The Warner Bros. Discovery board is probably the worst in media. Since the merger, the stock is down 56%. Despite that, and gutting the greatest brand in media, the board decided to pay their CEO, David Zaslav, $388 million over the last 4 ½ years. So shareholders, you give us a dollar, and we'll give you back 44 cents. But we’re going to give our CEO who oversaw this destruction of shareholder value a third of a billion dollars.

One thing I found compelling about HBO’s rebrand: the marketing team using the platform’s own failures as material. They’re leaning into self-deprecating humor, turning the chaotic Max rollout into a character-driven meme campaign. But I believe the memes are more than just a joke. It’s a clever way to engage the audience and create a cultural moment that fits HBO’s broader playbook.

This isn’t just a name reversal. It’s a return to form. Even before the rebrand, HBO had already started leaning back into its cable-era strengths: weekly releases, slow-build storytelling, and characters you can sit with over time. The numbers show that those tactics work. Shows released weekly generate 33% more engagement during their release window and sustain that engagement nearly 50% longer than binge-dropped series.

They’re pairing proven, cable-era strategies with fluency in digital media and culture. Where cable once left silence between Sundays, now there’s a space filled with memes, TikToks, speculation, and community. HBO doesn’t just drop content. It stretches it. And in doing so, it shows it doesn’t just know how to make good TV. It knows how to live in culture.

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Airbnb Isn’t Just for Sleep Anymore — It’s Building the Ultimate Travel Concierge

Airbnb is making its biggest pivot since the pandemic — repositioning from a lodging marketplace to a lifestyle platform with the launch of Airbnb Services and Airbnb Experiences. 

Users can now book chefs, spa treatments, makeup artists, personal trainers, and more, alongside experiences like museum tours and wildlife outings. Airbnb will take a 15% cut of services and 20% from experiences, effectively moving into high-margin, auxiliary services hotels usually provide, while maintaining its asset-light structure. 

This isn’t just about upselling — it’s about owning the fragmented travel stack. Airbnb is laying the groundwork for a personalized, AI-powered concierge that can plan entire itineraries, handling the dozen or so fragmented services that upscale travelers usually book separately.

With this redesign, Airbnb is shifting from a lodging company to a broader, more powerful travel platform. It’s also a bet on younger generations’ preference for personalization, convenience, and experience over ownership.

This is about chasing growth. Airbnb created and conquered vacation rentals,  but if it wants to become a $200 billion or $300 billion company, it needs new markets. Its answer? Offer all services. Not just a hotel alternative, but everything.

It feels almost too ambitious. Instead of expanding into one adjacent space, Airbnb’s going after 15 or 20 at once. It’s like Craigslist meets Uber — any service you can offer, list it on Airbnb. I’m skeptical it’ll work, but I respect that they’re experimenting.

An idea for Airbnb: help people connect. If you’re 29, on a business trip in Munich, turn on “visible mode” and meet other travelers nearby. Your generation is isolating — no bars, no clubs, just Netflix and DoorDash. Airbnb could become the new third space.

GOP Tax Plan

The House Republicans' new tax plan cleared its first hurdle after the House Ways and Means Committee voted to advance the bill. It includes several major provisions such as  increased defense spending, cuts to federal Medicaid funding, and a higher exemption for the estate tax.

• As it stands, the plan would reduce federal tax revenue by $5 trillion from 2025 through 2034 before added interest costs.

• In 30 years, when roughly 75% of Congress will be dead, debt as a share of GDP would be 47.5% higher (or $23.5 trillion higher) if it passes as is.

The bill is still in the early stages and is likely to undergo changes as it moves through Congress. House Speaker Mike Johnson is hoping to send it to the Senate by Memorial Day.

Part of the success or failure of any party is their ability to frame an issue, and the Republicans have been much better at this than Democrats. They talk about school choice as opposed to school vouchers (which are subsidies for rich people), etc.

Nomenclature is important, and here’s how the Democrats should frame this: This isn’t a tax cut. It's a $24 trillion loan we’re taking out from the younger generation. 

The people of my generation, who are wealthy, are asking young people to loan us $24 trillion. And we’re not going to pay it back. Then, in 10, 20, 30 years — after we’re dead, because the full faith and credit of the American government will probably hold until then — our kids will have to pay it back.

What’s in the bill? 

If passed, it would be the largest transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich in a single law in U.S. history.

Wealthy Americans, business owners, and investors would benefit the most. The bill would:

• Permanently extend Trump’s 2017 tax cuts, which benefit households in the top 1% more than twice as much as those in the bottom 60% as a share of their incomes.

• Increase the pass-through tax deduction for businesses from 20% to 23%.

• Preserve the carried interest loophole, which allows private equity and hedge fund managers to pay lower tax rates than most workers.

  • Trump has repeatedly promised to close this loophole. 

• Increase the estate tax exemption such that married couples will be able to pass on $30 million worth of assets to their children tax-free.

To pay for the tax cuts, Republicans aren’t cutting defense spending, Social Security, or Medicare — all of which would be unpopular with their older constituents — instead, they’re going after health and nutrition programs that support children and the poorest Americans. 

The bill would make work and eligibility requirements stricter for Medicaid and SNAP, and would force states to shoulder a higher share of SNAP payments. SNAP spending would effectively be cut by 30%.

Research shows SNAP work requirements don’t increase employment; they just reduce participation. That’s not a good outcome when children make up 40% of all SNAP recipients. 

If the changes to Medicaid pass, 8.6 million people could lose health coverage by 2034.

• Medicaid provides health care coverage to 40% of all children and 60% of all nursing home residents.

• It is also the largest funder of mental health and substance use disorder care in the country.  

Both SNAP and Medicaid are preventive. Cutting costs in the short term will likely lead to higher costs down the road.  

• One study found children with access to Medicaid grew up healthier and less reliant on government benefits, yielding a 2–7% annual ROI to the government. 

• SNAP participation has been linked to reduced health care costs by up to $5,000 per person, per year.

There has to be a recementing of values. I don’t know if it comes from national service, or a new code of masculinity, or a new American pope — but something has to give. We’ve lost any shared sense of purpose

We’ve become so divided by algorithms, so drunk on prosperity, that we’ve forgotten we’re Americans first — before we’re gay, straight, Republican, or Democrat. The idea of America is that once you make it, you invest in your country such that others can enjoy the same blessings you registered.

Instead, everyone’s like, no, ‘I want to create clouds that rain champagne and cocaine.’ It has gotten out of control.

The bill includes some constructive changes, including:

• Increasing the child tax credit from $2,000 to $2,500.

• Creating savings accounts for babies.

• Introducing new taxes on private colleges: The current 1.4% flat rate tax on income earned from endowments would be replaced with a tiered system, rising to 21% for schools with over $2 million per student.

After the controversy dies down, Trump ultimately won’t accept the plane gift  — not for any moral reason, but because the risk of hidden sabotage or surveillance in a Qatar-funded jet is too high, and the cost to make it safe would be over $1 billion.

America spends $4.9 trillion a year on health care — more than the GDP of Germany — and gets worse outcomes than every peer nation. Scott unpacks how administrative bloat, broken incentives, and bipartisan delusion are driving us toward a debt crisis. Read more here.

1. Why American pop culture has stagnated 

2. How to manage your experience of time

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