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14 Weeks of Pay to Quit Google
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TL;DR
Google’s quiet layoffs continue
WPP slashes ad growth forecast while the creator economy surges
Blackstone plans $500 billion investment in Europe
Google’s AI Overviews slashes publisher traffic
Google Offers Voluntary Buyouts, Tightens Office Policy as AI Reshapes Workforce
Google is offering voluntary buyouts across multiple divisions, including search and ads as part of its continued push to reduce head count. Employees who elect to take the buyout can receive up to 14 weeks of pay. At the same time, Google is tightening its return-to-office policy, requiring employees living within 50 miles of an office to be on-site three days a week.
These offers follow previous buyout rounds in Google’s Platform & Devices, and People Operations — all of which were eventually followed by layoffs.
Across the broader economy, U.S. job cuts are up 80% from the same period last year. In February 2025 alone, 1.8 million Americans were laid off. Professional services had the highest layoff rate that month at 1.9%, while government roles were the most stable at 0.4%, despite attempts by DOGE to slash spending.
It’s hard not to suspect AI is to blame:
Developers can code 20% to 50% faster using AI tools.
81% of hourly work for administrative assistants and 57% for lawyers is automatable.
According to Goldman Sachs' CEO, AI can now draft 95% of an IPO prospectus in minutes — a task that once took a six-person team two weeks.
Clearly Google believes it can get as much work done or more if AI powers its business. Industries with significant AI exposure are getting 3x higher growth in revenue per employee, and, over the past three years, the share of AI-doable tasks in online job postings has declined by 19%.
AI is coming for your job. Whether it will take it depends what job you have. I think if your brain can be on autopilot, that is a good signal that AI could be doing your job.
On a recent First Time Founders podcast, I spoke with an AI founder about how some jobs require your heart to be in it — in other words, being good at the work means feeling emotionally invested in the tasks you’re doing. I think the roles that demand a certain kind of creative energy — the kind only a human can bring — are the ones that remain safe.
AI is going to speedball America.
What do I mean by that? America slowly but surely has become an economy that is optimized for the top 10% at the cost of the bottom 90%. If we can find someone to work for $7.25 an hour, and they can’t afford food, f*ck you, that’s too bad. It’s gonna help me get richer if I can hire a bunch of people at $7.25.
AI is designed to amplify the capabilities of the top 10% in any field — whether it’s law, finance, or design. These high performers will use AI to enhance their productivity, reduce reliance on lower-level and average workers, and capture an even greater share of the spoils. AI is making America more like itself.
Creator Ad Revenue Surpasses Traditional Media for First Time
A new WPP forecast estimates that in 2025, ad revenue from creator-driven platforms such as YouTube, TikTok, and Instagram will surpass the combined ad revenue of traditional media (TV, print, audio, and film) for the first time. Creator-led advertising revenue (brand deals, sponsorships, and platform ads) is expected to grow 20% this year and more than double by 2030.
As creator content becomes the preferred vehicle for brands, ad dollars are flowing to the platforms where this content lives. In 2025, over 80% of all global ad revenue is digital, and just five companies, Google, Meta, ByteDance (TikTok), Amazon, and Alibaba, now account for more than 50% of all global ad revenues.
Meanwhile, the broader ad market is weakening. WPP cut its global ad growth forecast for 2025 from 7.7% to 6%, and 54% of marketers plan to reduce spending in 2025. And it’s not just pressure from creator advertising: More brands are bringing media in-house, and AI is automating targeting and creative work.
WPP, once a dominant force in global advertising, is now worth just $8 billion — less than half of what Google added in market cap in a single day last week. Its stock is down over 30% this year and has lost half its value since 2022. To stay competitive, WPP is investing £300 million ($400 million) in AI. But it's going to be hard to compete: Alphabet and Meta will spend that much on capex every day this year, with much of it flowing to AI.
Cannes Lions, my favorite conference in the world, is this week. It's essentially a bunch of people who fly 6,000 miles to give each other awards for making a Pepsi ad that no one remembers. Ad execs go to the beach, drink four glasses of rosé, and then go to a party sponsored by their executioner, Google.
Look, if you’re an agency, your core asset is relationships. It’s a complicated time, so building relationships of trust — whether that’s helping clients create activations or figure out how to leverage AI across their media mix — is everything.
The best consultants and vendors are the ones who aggregate smart people and ask: What are your biggest problems — in marketing, supply chain, influencer strategy, whatever it is — and how can we help? If you’ve built that kind of trust, you can say: We’ve assembled thoughtful, creative people who will help you solve those problems.
What sets the best agencies apart? They’re the best thought partners.
The future of advertising looks like individual people talking to you about products. That’s the big seismic shift that is going to be discussed at Cannes this year.
Traditional institutions and companies and brands are all losing credibility. Specifically, they are losing ground to individual content creators — whether it’s in the news, where CNN and MSNBC are being beaten by podcasters like Joe Rogan, or in Hollywood, where traditional production studios are getting run over by YouTubers like MrBeast. We’re at a point where even the Republican Party has given itself over to a person — Donald Trump. People are the new brands now.
To learn more about people disrupting brands, read Ed's No Mercy / No Malice guest post.
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Blackstone Doubles Down on Europe, Yale Sells Billions in Private Equity Amid Weak Returns
Blackstone is planning to invest $500 billion in Europe over the next decade, citing deregulatory tail winds, lower interest rates, and pro-growth policies.
European markets have already outperformed this year. The Euro STOXX 50 is up 8% year to date, Germany’s DAX has jumped 21%, and the FTSE 100 just hit an all-time high. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is up just over 2%. Major policy commitments across Europe are expected to accelerate that momentum:
Defense: €800 billion committed by 2030, with NATO pushing for a 400% increase in air and missile defense
Energy: €570 billion per year through 2030 in EU investment to meet climate and energy targets
Infrastructure: such as Germany’s €500 billion special infrastructure budget passed in March 2025
This shift comes as the private equity industry faces increasing pressure. Fundraising dropped 24% in 2024, the third straight year of declines. Returns have underperformed public markets, and firms are now sitting on nearly $1 trillion in dry powder. There is too much capital chasing too few quality deals.
The cracks are showing among institutional investors. Yale’s endowment fund is off-loading up to $6 billion in private equity and venture capital — its largest ever move into the secondary market. Yale expects to sell at a modest discount, reportedly less than 10%.
The sale comes as the Senate reviews the Big, Beautiful Bill, which proposes hiking the tax on Yale’s endowment investment returns from 1.4% to 21%.
More than half of Yale’s $41 billion portfolio is in private equity and venture capital, both of which are struggling with slow exits, limited liquidity, and lackluster returns. In 2024, Yale’s endowment returned 6%, trailing the S&P 500’s 24% rise.
Yale’s 10-year return of 9.5% is stronger but still falls short of the S&P 500, which has delivered more than 12% annually in recent years. In today’s market, even the most prestigious investors are rethinking how much premium private equity really deserves.
I bank with Goldman not because it’s functionally better, but because it offers self-expressive benefits. Wealthy people invest in exclusive private equity funds that aren’t available to retail investors because exclusivity signals superiority.
But when you add up the returns of these exclusive PE funds, they have underperformed the S&P 500 by about the amount of their fees. The alternative investments industrial complex is one of the biggest grifts in consumer history. CNBC will always run stories about the few hedge funds that outperform, but that ignores the thousands that underperformed and quietly shut down. Still, people (and $40 billion university endowments) want to believe they’re special and can beat the market. They can’t.
The reason general partners win is simple: management fees. It’s the classic 2 and 20 model — 2% just for managing capital, 20% of the upside if it materializes. That’s why the real game across asset classes is growing AUM. The bigger the fund, the bigger the guaranteed payout. Picking winners has become secondary. The smart money understands that choosing the best company is mostly luck, but collecting 2% on billions is a business model.
Structurally, though, the real problem is exits. Last quarter, exit volume hit a two-year low. Last year, exit value was the lowest in five years. M&As, IPOs, and secondaries have slowed to a crawl. That means more forced sales, more capital stuck in limbo, and more sellers than buyers.
General partners are the people who manage private equity funds. They decide which companies to invest in, how to improve them, and when to sell. They typically earn a 2% management fee and a 20% share of the firm's profits.
Limited partners are the investors who provide the capital for the fund. They can be high-net-worth individuals or institutions like pension funds or endowments.
The New Internet: Google’s AI Overviews Reshape Organic Traffic
Google’s AI Overviews are siphoning traffic away from publishers. The New York Times has seen an 8% drop in organic traffic over the past three years. Business Insider and The Washington Post are down more than 50%.
This isn’t just a Google problem — it’s a shift in how the internet works. We’re moving from SEO (search engine optimization) to GEO: generative engine optimization, where visibility is dictated by what AI chooses to cite.
Each AI model has its own preferences:
ChatGPT tends to cite Wikipedia
Google AI Overviews favor YouTube, Reddit, and Quora
Perplexity also heavily leans on Reddit
This bias toward user-generated content is redistributing power across the web. Platforms like Reddit aren’t just forums anymore — they’re foundational inputs for AI models. If Reddit is where AI goes to "learn," then optimizing for Reddit engagement becomes a back door to broader reach.
The tone and structure of community conversations shapes AI output. Academic research confirms that AI models are specifically trained to extract high-quality information by analyzing the structure and sentiment of forum threads. Platforms that gamify quality (through upvotes, expert badges, and awards) make it easier for AI to identify and cite authoritative content. That means the sentiment and clarity of discussions within these communities are already influencing how AI models summarize and respond.
The first major consumer brand to wrap itself in American values and take a stand against Trump-era authoritarianism will unlock massive loyalty and market share.
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